Climate change in the Rhine catchment

Since modifications of climate values impact the hydrological processes as well as the water regime, the ICPR has been dealing with the issue of climate change since the Conference of Rhine Ministers 2007.

Effects of climate change modify the discharge pattern of the Rhine and its tributaries. Presumably, periods with floods or low flow will become more frequent and more distinct. Floods may be higher and last longer and thus cause damage more often and to a greater extent. Low flow may limit navigation as well as water supply. In addition, low flow reduces groundwater recharge and affects the quality of groundwater. A rise in air temperatures leads to higher water temperatures which again – together with low flow – might result in countless ecological and chemical changes of water bodies (see reports below on past and future changes in water temperature and the effects of climate change on the ecosystem).

The ICPR updated the discharge scenarios for the Rhine basin using latest climate change findings in July 2024 (see report no. 297). The study presents new discharge projections at representative gauging stations for the near future (up to 2060) and the remote future (up to 2100) (see also detailed figures on the CHR website). As a consequence of climate change, it is generally expected that in the future winter flows will increase and summer flows will decrease. The hydrological regime will be characterised by discharge resulting more from rainfall than from melting snow and glaciers. More frequent heavy rainfall events, particularly in summer, are expected (see report no. 306 on the ICPR workshop "heavy rainfall and flash floods").

The discharge scenarios show a considerable range of possible evolutions. When developing adaptation strategies for the Rhine catchment, those wide ranges are taken into account. The climate change adaptation strategy of the ICPR is available as report no. 219 (2015) and will be updated by the end of 2025 as part of the Programme Rhine 2040.

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Report no. 306 (2024): Report on the results of the workshop ‘Heavy precipitation events and torrential floods: new risks and options for action in the Rhine catchment area’

Report no. 301 (2024): Development of Rhine water temperatures from 1978 to 2023

Report no. 297 (2024): Climate change induced discharge scenarios for the Rhine basin (and press release)

Report no. 219 (2015): Climate change adaptation strategy for the IRBD Rhine

Report no. 213 (2014): Estimation of the effects of climate change scenarios on future Rhine water temperature development - Summary Report

Report no. 214 (2014): Estimation of the effects of climate change scenarios on future Rhine water temperature development - Extensive Version

Report no. 209 (2013): Development of Rhine water temperatures based on validated temperature measurements between 1978 and 2011 (Update: report no. 301)

Report no. 204 (2013): Present state of knowledge on possible consequences of changes of the discharge pattern and water temperature on the Rhine ecosystem and possible perspectives for Action

Workshop “Effects of climate change on the Rhine river basin“: Please find here more information about the workshop from 30 and 31 January 2013.

Report no. 188 (2011): "Study of Scenarios for the Discharge Regime of the Rhine" (Update: report no. 297)

Report no. 174 (2009): Literature evaluation “Analysis of the State of Knowledge on Climate Changes so far and on the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Regime in the Rhine Watershed”